End of the Road

While business is not strong, our decision comes down to life choices.

Our most conservative projections in 2005 predicted great success if we could only get 1% of all the pro football fantasy players to engage in a new and more intense game of skill. Perhaps our friend Joe Dexter knew what he was talking about years ago in that the game itself is just too damn hard to fully grab hold of a large amount of players – and that was only with 116 teams then!

Thomas Edison taught us all that he failed 9000 times before getting the light bulb correct – I raise a glass to all my business partners for joining me on this journey that will someday lead to success.

My personal special thanks to:

Jeff Lagos and Daniel Freer, former FCB business partners that chose other paths along the way. Few know business like Lagos, few know college football history like Daniel. All the best to you as always.

Drew Smith, who like me started this thing and now finishes it. Besides arguing over the draftability of JaMarcus Russell, we learned a lot about each other over the years and I look forward to that continuing.

John Huss, our web business humbled even this force of nature. Without meeting you fifteen years ago, I chill to think of what my life would be like now.

My wife Megan, who supported me in this venture far beyond what many mates would dream. I look forward to getting more sleep with you and our beautiful daughter.

“Neil Young”, college football superfan with more energy than a solar power array. May you find other outlets for your passion for the game (and can I still be in your league with the scoring system envied in ancient Byzantium?)

Our freelance writers, who would often ask when they would get paid and our response was always “When we do…”.

Short of a couple cats, you guys and gals were always timely, entertaining and I learned a lot from you – especially Matt McCluskey (now doing serious news in Upstate NY) who covered the Big East  for us and let me guest weekly on his radio show for a few years. Great times. Keep an eye out for Chris Pendley who possesses unique wit and intelligence – like me when I was his age, just needs to mellow a bit. But talent beyond reproach. Nick Gerogosian the MAC Daddy and his MAC predictions – he knows the Midwest better than most politicians.

To Jason Collette , one of the fantasy baseball elite, who tried his hardest to introduce us to all the right people – heck we even hung out with Jenn Sterger for a couple hours. Seriously, Jason was instrumental in a lot of our success.

The folks at Fantasy Sports Ventures / Big Lead Sports / USA Today Sports Media Group – our marketing partner grew at a much faster trajectory than we did. One of my favorite moments of the FCB journey was when your salesperson called to see if I would buy ads on your new network, and I turned it around and actually got ON the network as the first fantasy college football site on their roster! Between Andy Regal on content strategy and Chip Walker on business, we really had no business getting access to your business sense and intellect so we appreciated every second. Thanks for the time, the laughs and continued success wished to you all.

And quickly, Tim Dady, Randy Burgess, Vincent Lauria, Will Carroll, Nathan Karp, The Senior Bowl staff, Jeff Erickson, Alex Esselink, Todd DeVries, Steve Lassan, Mike Bianchi, Brett Atkin, and Topher Dean were great people I met through this journey and I aim to keep in touch.

And finally, the hardest of the hardcore fantasy college footballers continue to experiment at the NCAA Project. Check us out throughout the season.

If I forgot anyone, my sincere apologies. Please reach out to me at my real name at vincent.regan[at]gmail[dot]com so I can make proper amends. Bless you all.

This is not a phrase ever uttered by Joe Paterno except maybe in the last year of his life, but rather my reflection on how this top ten list will be received. Penn State fans, and general college football fans alike, will argue back and forth all day about the best Nittany Lion campaigns as USAToday aims to celebrate Joe Paterno’s amazing career.

(Originally published in USA Today Special Edition on January 26, 2012)

As a result, please consider this list loosely ranked as it would be folly to support which of JoePa’s National Titles is the finest, and I have had many certain that the 1969 squad was the finest despite its finish at AP #2.

One thing I am certain of – we should all be in awe of a career of both quantity and quality, of toughness and grace, his principles and his adaptive ability and finally of Joe Paterno’s historical and cultural significance. While I break down each team in this article with lots of Hall of Fame players and football stats, I also layered on some significant news stories from each season to reinforce the impressive longevity of JoePa’s legacy on the football field.

Paterno took the helm in 1966, 44 years ago which is at the top end of this reader demographic. To reflect on just how long ago Paterno began his stellar career, I submit these other 1966 events:

*   Star Trek debuted on TV
*   NFL-AFL merger
*   Miranda v. Arizona
*   Texas Western beat Kentucky in college basketball final
*   Sound of Music won Best Picture at the Academy Awards

With that, the Top Ten Nittany Lion teams of the JoePa era.
10. 1971 (11-1), Final Ranking of AP #5, PPG 40.3 (2nd in nation), PPGA 11.4 (11th)
All-Americans: Dave Joyner, Lydell Mitchell, Charlie Zapiec

Also in 1971: Walt Disney World opens in Florida, USA bans tobacco ads, NYC World Trade center construction finished, Dow Jones Industrial average creeps above 1000 for the first time in five years.

While the excellent margin of victory stands impressively, PSU faced an average to weak schedule, including three games against service academies that tallied up to 114-17. Up until the December 4 31-11 loss to #12 Tennessee (their first ranked opponent), the Blue and White beat every team like they stole something from their sister. RB Lydell Mitchell set the bar high with the all-time rushing season with 1567 yds and 26 TD – it certainly helped to run behind Franco Harris and All-American tackle Dave Joyner. On defense, LB Zapeic made the AA team and Gary Gray secured 115 tackles.

Longtime Penn State fans though remember the thrashing of Texas in their backyard Cotton Bowl, 30-6, “payback for Richard Nixon’s greatest transgression” says Frank O’Brien an SB Nation commenter. Fandom like that certainly can skew one’s view of history. Wait for the 1969 team for a full review of Nixon’s involvement with college football.

9. 1973 (12-0) AP #5, PPG 37.2 (7th), PPGA 10.8 (7th)
All-Americans: RB John Cappelletti, DL Randy Crowder, Ed O’Neil

Also in 1973: George Steinbrenner buys Yankees for $10mil, Vietnam War ends, Watergate begins and OJ Simpson runs for 2,000 yards in the NFL, first season that NCAA split football into three divisions.

Another season with a weak strength of schedule, but no one can argue the dominance of JoePa’s third perfect season. Heisman/Maxwell Award/Walter Camp Trohy winning RB John Cappelletti had the second best fantasy game in Penn State history with 220 yards rushing and three TDs in the narrow 35-29 win over North Carolina State, and the third best rushing season in Penn State history. Gary Hayman stood out as a fine return specialist and LB Greg Buttle started his fine career that led to him holding the career PSU tackles record with 343.

Notre Dame and Alabama split the national title despite the epic win by the Irish over the Tide in the Sugar Bowl, but the Lions did all they could beating Coach of the Year Johnny Majors and his #20 Pitt and #13 LSU in the Orange Bowl to close the season. JoePa probably remembers Cappelletti’s Heisman Trophy acceptance speech the most from this campaign, as the emotional RB honored his brother who suffered from leukemia.

8. 1991 (11-2) AP #3, PPG 36.5 (5th), PPGA 14.2 (11th)
All-American: S Darren Perry

Also in 1991: USSR collapse, Dow hits 3000 for first time, Gulf War, Rodney King

This up and down campaign began on the heels of three average seasons after the 1986 National Title team as Penn State looked to set up the program for economic success in the future by signing with the Big Ten in late 1990.

The offense looked like the future as it adapted to a more pass-friendly look. QB Tony Sacca set the season passing yards record in 1991 on his way to securing the career yards passing team mark, and no wonder JoePa started passing with Terry Smith, Bobby Engram, TE Kyle Brady and OJ McDuffie on the flanks. Safety Darren Perry earned All-American status and led the defense.

#7 PSU opened with the Kickoof Classic versus #8 Georgia Tech and secured a 34-22 win, followed by next weeks demolition of Cincinnati 81-0. Week Three held a long road trip to Los Angeles to play USC, who took a 24-10 loss to Memphis State in their opener that most call the low point of the Trojan program. Throw the records out – USC blitzed with abandon and forced five turnovers in the 24-10 Lion loss. Penn State then embarked on a Big East schedule after a beating of Ty Detmer and BYU, but that nemesis Mimi (FL) stood in the way with a loss in the Orange Bowl stadium to push PSU to 5-2.

Fight On State! JoePa unleashed the passing attack in dramatic fashion as the lions ran off the next six  for a combined score of 244-80 including Notre Dame and the IBM OS/2 Fiesta Bowl win over Johnny Majors’ Tennessee 42-17. OJ McDuffie garnered MVP of the bowl game, part of a five touchdown barrage in the second half in the come from behind win. Sacca only completed 11 passes, but four for scores.

7. 1968 (11-0) AP #2, PPG 32.2 (11th), PPGA 10.9 (5th)
All American: E Ted Kwalick, LB Dennis Onkotz

Also in 1968: US Congress repeals gold standard for currency, MLK assassination, Matell’s Hot Wheels and CBS 60 Minutes debut, Beatles’ White Album

JoePa achieves his first perfect season in just his third attempt. Linebacker U tradition started here with All-American Dennis Onkotz and my colleague Daniel Freer’s choice as best player of the Paterno era Jack Ham, then on the other side of the ball stood PSU’s first two-time AA TE Ted Kwalick.

The first true challenge of the year came at West Virginia in early October, but a 31-20 win in the mountains was secured. Army presented the next challenge in Week 6, as PSU escaped with a hard fought 28-24 win.

One of three unbeatens come bowl season (#1 Ohio State played #2 USC in the Rose Bowl with the Buckeyes victorious), Penn State trailed #6 Kansas Jayhawks 14–7 with 1:16 left in the Orange Bowl. A long pass from QB Chuck Burkhart to Bobby Campbell and Burkharts subsequent short TD run as time ran out. Kansas stopped the two-point conversion try but was called for having 12 men on the field. Given a second chance, Penn State converted on a Campbell run and won 15–14 and finished the season #2. Paterno found his groove and setup the legendary 1969 campaign quite well.

6. 1981 (10-2) AP #3, PPG 30.9 (10th), PPGA 13.5 (21st)
All Americans: Sean Farrell, Curt Warner

Also in 1981: The birth of the 401(k), Iranian hostage crisis, First Space Shuttle mission, President Reagan shot, Princess Diana wedding, MTV debuts and Metallica forms

As you can see above, 1981 was a crazy year and college football got in line with the times. Six different teams laid claim to the #1 ranking at some point of the season, and Paterno grabbed his share in October after beating #15 Nebraska behind Curt Warner’s 238 yard rushing performance, then followed by decisive wins over Temple, BC and Syracuse.

Unfortunately, Miami (FL) hosted a Halloween bash for the Lions and dealt them the first defeat 17-14. Two weeks later, #6 Alabama came to Beaver Stadium and left with a 31-16 victory. The Lions could have wrote off the season, but the next week they took down Notre Dame followed by a thumping of consensus #1 Pittsburgh 48-14. On to a major bowl they went.

In the Fiesta Bowl, college football fans rejoiced as USC and their Heisman Trophy RB Marcus Allen faced off against the vicious PSU defense. Lion RB Warner stole the show again with the first score on his way to finishing with 145 yards rushing, compared to 85 for Allen on 30 carries with a crucial fumble. QB Todd Blackledge added on a 52-yard score on the way to a 26-10 win.

5. 1994 (12-0) AP #2 PPG 47 (1st) PPGA 21 (30th), First Big Ten Title
All Americans: Kyle Brady, Ki-Jana Carter, Kerry Collins, Bobby Engram, Jeff Hartings.

Also in 1994: Kurt Cobain died, Nelson Mandela takes office in South Africa, Netscape Navigator web browser introduced, and the other OJ Simpson major news story.

In my research of this article, I found many well-defended positions for this campaign as the finest of the Paterno era, but as a fantasy football guy I know “offense-bias” when I see it. In this case, 47 points per game is worthy of the wonder as this squad overflowed with NFL-quality players like Heisman Trophy runner-up RB Ki-Jana Carter, TE Kyle Brady, Maxwell Award winner QB Kerry Collins, G Marco Rivera and WRs Bobby Engram and Joe Jurevicius.

All but three of the victories were by double digits including a vicious homecoming beatdown of #21 Ohio State 63-14, and if not for a late Hail Mary by Indiana it would have been only two. Bobby Engram remains the only Lion wideout with a 1000 yard season receiving, but Carter carried this squad with 23 touchdowns and over 1500 yards rushing.

No one can deny the legendary talent, but what could be denied was a national title by the Bowl Coalition. Maybe that isn’t the Coalition’s fault as the big 10 and the Pac-10 chose to continue their Rose Bowl tradition, so let’s blame the sportswriters and their “Osborne Bias”

Both the Cornhuskers and Nittany Lions finished 1994 without a scratch, and if the BCS were around then they likely would have faced off. Penn State took it to the #12 Oregon Ducks 38-20, highlighted by Carter’s 83-yard TD run to open the floodgates. In the Orange Bowl, the Huskers blackshirt defense controlled the Miami Hurricanes potent offense for a 24-17 win and Coach Tom Osborne’s first national title. One of the beauties of college football remains the constant fodder for who deserved a given year’s title, you know.

4. 1982 (11-1) AP #1, PPG 32.9 (5th) PPGA 16.3 (22nd), Paterno’s First National Title
All-Americans: RB Curt Warner, DE Walker Lee Ashley, WR Kenny Jackson, S Mark Robinson

Also in 1982: Cal Ripken begins his 2,632 games played streak, Cal beats Stanford with “The Play” and the Dow Jones Industrial Average eclipses 1000 for the final time [fingers crossed]

Notice that the first title year was not undefeated – the only ranked team to emerge unscathed in 1982 was SMU, and they had their own battles to deal with. The only loss was to at an unusually weak Alabama 42-21 who finished out of the Top 20 for the first time in a decade, made only more surreal when their legendary coach Paul “Bear” Bryant passed away early in 1983.

But two of the greatest games in college football history ended very well for our Blue and White.

September 25, 1982, the #2 ranked Nebraska Cornhuskers brought in QB Turner Gill and soon to be Heisman Trophy winner Mike Rozier, but PSU still had a lot of that 1981 team like QB Blackledge and the original Curt Warner (not the one on Dancing with the Stars as you read this). The two teams slugged it out back and forth the entire game, but State possessed the ball last and got two very favorable calls resulting in a Todd Blackledge TD and an improbable 27-24 win

After the loss at Legion Field, Penn State ripped off 6 impressive wins capped with a roadie in South Bend followed by playing poor hosts to Pitt, setting up the rare #2 PSU against top ranked Georgia Bulldogs and wunderkind Herschel Walker in the 1983 Sugar Bowl. Warner again proved his mettle with an early TD and 117 yards rushing, but Walker and the Bulldogs kept snapping at the Black Shoes. Blackledge hit WR Gregg Garrity with a long TD pass in the 4th quarter to secure the margin of victory and the national title, 27-23.

At the final gun, Paterno was surrounded and hoisted on shoulders to celebrate his first OFFICIAL title. Paterno was quoted as saying “”for the nine thousandth time…(the) undefeated teams of 1968, 1969 and 1973 were champions as well, even if they weren’t voted to the top spot in the polls.” We know I already slotted the “68 squad at #6, so look who sneaks into the top three.

3. 2005 (11-1) Won Big Ten title, AP #3, PPG 34.4 (13th), PPGA 17.0 (10th)
All-Americans: DL Tamba Hali, LB Paul Posluszny, CB Alan Zemaitis

Also in 2005: Pope John Paul II funeral, first human face transplant

There actually was a time when the college football cognescenti thought Joe Paterno no longer an able coach – the new millenia proved unkind with losing seasons in three of the first four. JoePa secured a bevy of talented freshman to contribute immediately, and QB Michael Robinson took the helm of the new Spread HD offense under PSU alum offensive coordinator Galen Hall. JoePa actually sent the offensive staff to Austin to study how Texas used dual-threat QB Vince Young, and plugged in Robinson with great success. Defense talent was stacked also, with the All-Americans listed above.

The Lions were caught by surprise by the excellent 2005 Northwestern offense but hung on for the last-minute comeback win in late September. JoePa likely thanked Cats HC Randy Walker for the wake up call as PSU returned home to whip up on unbeaten Minnesota then Ohio State in a classic night game which vaulted them to the AP #8.

Then the heart breaker in the Big House – Michigan’s Lloyd Carr convinced the refs to put a second back on the clock leading Chad Henne to hit Mario Manningham for a TD at the horn and the destruction of the perfect season. I implore everyone to not dismiss this 7-5 Michigan squad, as they were a collective 49 seconds away from being undefeated in 2005. I mentioned wake-up calls earlier – the Black Shoes beat the next three teams by an average of 30 to set up the Orange Bowl matchup of football patriarchs, Paterno versus Bobby Bowden and the Florida State Seminoles for JoePa’s first BCS Bowl. After numerous missed FG by both teams throughout the game, K Kevin Kelly secured the 26-23 win in triple OT.

This season proved clutch in saving and cementing the legacy of Paterno, hence my elevation with the benefit of impartiality. Paterno revealed that his own administration wanted him to quit in 2004, so they were likely his best friends after the 2005 AP Coach of the Year award. If it weren’t for 2005, Paterno would never have had the additional seasons to achieve 400 wins. If it weren’t for Michigan, 2005 tops this chart.

2. 1969 (11-0) AP #2 PPG 29.3 (25th) PPGA 8.2 (1st)
All-Americans: Onkotz, DL Mike Reid, HB Charlie Pittman

Yes, the second best team on the countdown did not win the writer’s poll. The 100th year of college football treated fans to a tumultuous mix of politics and perception with their pigskin, positioning playoff partisanship for an epoch to follow.

Early in the season, two close road wins over Kansas State and Syracuse dropped the Lions out of the Top 5 for just one week. After running the regular season to a 10-0 record, PSU stood as one of four undefeateds with claims to a national title along with USC and Southwest Conference rivals Texas and Arkansas. Politics made all the difference for how the season played out from here.

Seems that prior to the season, ABC Sports legend Roone Arledge inspired the Longhorns and the Razorbacks to move their game date from the traditional October date to the end of the season, not just as a climactic battle to determine SWC Championship and the Cotton Bowl berth but also to host president Richard Nixon at the game.  As luck would have it, Ohio State fell to Michigan the week before to also setup #1 versus #2 – folks, the entire sports world (and half of all American televisions) ignored the solid Penn State team for this “Game of the Century”. President Nixon, caught up in the pageantry, declared he would present a national champion plaque to the winner also, BEFORE THE BOWL GAMES.

In short, Texas won 15-14 on a last minute comeback to grab the plaque, but Penn State won two tough road games to setup an Orange Bowl victory over Dan Devine’s Missouri (no slouch with four victories over ranked teams) from the old Big 8. Texas beat Notre Dame 21-17 in the Cotton to make a great case to claim the writer’s title, but Penn State fans to this day stand by this squad as deserving of title consideration.

Joe Pa got the last laugh though – Nixon fell from the public grace during the Watergate scandal, leading the “conservative” Republican coach to ask “How did Nixon know so much about football in 1969, but so little about Watergate in 1973?” Zing!

1. 1986 (12-0) AP #1 Consensus National Champion, PPG 28.3 (17th) PPGA 11.1 (3rd)
All-Americans: LB Shane Conlan, OL Chris Conlan, RB DJ Dozier, DL Tim Johnson

ALSO IN 1986: First PC virus (Brain), Mike Tyson’s first heavyweight title, Len Bias death, Challenger Space Shuttle disaster, Chernobyl nuclear meltdown.

The second title team of the era was classic hard-nosed Paterno – run with power backs DJ Dozier and Blair Thomas, play stellar defense and destroy the other team’s psyche. They went to Alabama and crushed the Tide, stumbled past the Maryland Terrapins by blocking their two-point conversion attempt, they traveled to South Bend and stopped the Fighting Irish with a late goal-line stand but could never quite get the #1 ranking.  That spot was held by a team whose psyche was indomitable, whose style was inimitable – the Miami (FL) Hurricanes.

Both teams finished calendar year 1986 undefeated, and Penn State was a lock to get a Fiesta Bowl invite. Miami and coach Jimmy Johnson saw no reason at the time to leave Miami and simply play in the Orange Bowl, as their NFL-talent-laden roster of Michael Irvin and Vinny Testaverde and Jerome Brown crushed all opponents even defending champ Oklahoma.

In this era before these behemoth programs joined conferences, there was a true free-for-all competing for this matchup. The Fiesta Bowl innovated a new way to compete – corporate sponsorship, so blame Sunkist and the Fiesta bowl for giving us the forgotten Poulan-Weed Eater Bowl and the Meineke Car Care Bowl. The capital infusion, as well as some clever PR from the Fiesta Bowl suggesting that coach Jimmy Johnson was ducking the Nittany Lions on a neutral field, allowed the Fiesta to move to the top echelon of bowl festivities and give us the second “Game of the Century”.

Beano Cook said of the 1986 Lion offense; “Penn State had less firepower than Sweden did in World War II.” Miami wielded more firepower than a Nimitz-class freighter, but the Penn State defense would be the story. Actually, more of this game’s lore lies in its pre-game smack talk and how that shaped the then unbeatable thug Hurricane image.

Five sacks of Testaverde and seven Hurricane turnovers showed the Penn State dominance, but Miami unleashed a defensive flurry upon Blue Shirts of even greater intensity. Despite Miami outgaining  penn State by 445 to 162, the turnovers kept the score tight with Penn State holding a 14-10 lead to the final minute. The defense held within their five yard line to secure the title.

JoePa has been quoted “to this day, I don’t know how we beat Miami”. College football fans, writers and pundits alike marvel at JoePa, not knowing how anyone else could succeed consistently for 45 years.

I must give a hat tip to the amazing Sports-reference.com that helped with my research, as well as websites like Black Shoe Diaries, Wikipedia and and the Penn State Collegian newspaper. Also, my friend Jason Young proved an amazing resource putting most of these teams into context of college football history.

Yes, this piece focused on Joe Paterno’s work on the field – I will let other arenas perform proper due diligence on the off-the-field tragedies that surrounded JoePa’s off-the-field legacy.

You have no doubt seen this analogy heading in to the 2012 BCS Title Game between the LSU Tigers and the Alabama Crimson Tide but it has two flaws – 1) the original game was not entertaining nor played at a high level, and 2) there is always the chance we will get a “Wrath of Khan” or a “Dark Knight” followup.

Defense. Honey Badger. Trent Richardson. The verbal stylings of Les Miles. Here is the SportsCentral Preview:

http://c.brightcove.com/services/viewer/federated_f9?isVid=1&isUI=1

My take on the matchup after the jump.

Smart guys in the desert say: Alabama 21-19 (Alabama -2, Total 40)

But there may be no information advantage here – EVERYONE in the country knows about these two teams and all the history of this SEC matchup shows 50-50 results against the spread. 65% of the “votes” are for LSU, but that is not significant enough bullishness to go contrarian against the crowd (want to see 80%+ on one side to justify that).

To me it is significant that LSU is 10-3 ATS (9-0 in SEC) in their 13-0 2011 campaign – we all know they are good but they consistently exceeded expectations.

Also, remember that the Tide were favored in the first match on November 5th “Game of the Century” by 5.5 points but lost in a slugfest and a game marred by missed field goals on both sides.

My pick: LSU 17-13

When there is little in the data to go on, you are left to rely on the gut. My gut says that Les Miles continues to be the coach from whom to expect the unexpected. Miles eats grass like Maximus samples the dirt of the battlefield. Fake field goals. Shuttling quarterbacks. The Hat.

After suspending his starting QB for four games, Jordan Jefferson and his option running was a big part of the November gameplan. I still maintain that Jarrett Lee is the best quarterback on the field Monday, so his more balanced passing package should be successful.

Nick Saban has no time for gut – his style is like Moneyball in that it is designed to be very steady and effective. Play vicious defense, control the clock, win football. If this game were played ten times (I know, it feels like it) I would take Alabama to win a majority.

But the BCS National Championship is one game. One game with the two best defenses in the country. Unless Trent Richardson puts Alabama on his back and just carries the offense, I do not see many big play opportunities against LSU. I think LSU possesses more talent at skill positions and Les Miles will dig deep into his creative mind to find one or two big plays needed.

Look for LSU and the upset again.

Clemson tried to do it. They tried to have another epic meltdown late in the season just like they do every year. In fact, if they would have lost to Wake Forest, like I think they should have (they got lucky with some typically shoddy ACC officiating), they would not have made it to the ACC title game, and thus would not be in a BCS bowl. In fact, we probably would have seen the end of Dabo Swinney. But somehow, after back-to-back losses to close out the regular season, the Tigers managed to come out swinging against Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship game and cruised to an easy victory right on into the Orange Bowl.

The Mountaineers needed a ton of help to get into the Orange Bowl. At the end of the regular season, there was a three-way tie for first place in the Big East, which came down to the final rankings in the polls being the determining factor. There was a lot of strangeness leading up to the beginning of the season for West Virginia; Dana Holgerson was handed the team after a series of lies were spread by then HC Bill Stewart about Holgerson as an attempt to save his job from the newly-appointed head coach-in-waiting. There was a quick change in philosophies for the team and a few quick hires which really put the team behind the 8 ball. Either way, they managed to put together a decent package for the season and climb their way high enough in the rankings to play in a BCS bowl.

Tigers QB Tajh Boyd really flourished under new OC Chad Morris’ up-pace, pass-happy system. It didn’t hurt that he had a supreme WR tandem in freshman All-American Sammy Watkins and DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins will most likely miss the game after suffering a concussion in a car accident this weekend. RB Andre Ellington eclipsed 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns this year and will look to use this game as a way to boost his draft stock as he will most likely jump for the NFL draft a year early.

West Virginia QB Geno Smith had a good year in Holgerson’s passing offense as well, throwing for almost 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns. Just like in any Holgerson offense, the ball gets spread around to all of the WR way too much to consider any one in particular to be a break-out candidate, but Stedman Bailey and Tavon Austinboth had over 1,000 yards receiving and should really give this poor Clemson secondary some fits.

This will be a high scoring game and should have a ton of yards. I would not be surprised to see nearly 1,000 combined yards in this one. It’ll come down to who has the better defense and to be honest, both are below average with the edge slightly going to the Clemson Tigers.

What type of team is best suited to stop a running QB? I’d say a team that has arguably the best running QB in the entire NCAA; Michigan. Virginia Tech finally figured out that they could use their big 260 lb QB as a rusher by mid-season which got the Hokie’s stagnant offense clicking. But Michigan experienced a resurgence toward national relevance under new HC Brady Hoke, and they will know how to handle a QB with wheels.

Tech will look to use their rushing attack and solid defense to control the clock. Look for QB Logan Thomas and RB David Wilson to run close to 40 plays on the ground. The Hokies has a pair of stud WRs in Danny Coale and Jarrett Boykin that struggled to live up to much this season, and a national stage could be just what they need for a breakout game.  Wolverine QB Denard Robinson was asked to stay in the pocket more and learn to pass first. The offense struggled because of it. But once the coaches opened up the playbook a little and allowed Robinson to just make some plays, the offense began to really take off. The emergence of sophomore RB Fitzgerald Toussaintand WR Junior Hemmingway kept opposing defenses honest enough for Robinson to rush for over 1,000 yards and 16 touchdowns.

This is going to be a little more defensive of a game as I would have hoped. Honestly, both teams have solid defenses and when you don’t play for a month, it tends to favor the defensive side of the ball more than the offense. This will be a relatively close game for most of the time so it should be a good one to watch.

Grasp this.  Oregon and Wisconsin are two of 12 teams since 1996 to score at least 80 touchdowns in a season.  In a season!  Now Oregon has done it twice along with Oklahoma.  Take your seat folks, please fasten your safety belts as this one could be a fast paced game that gives you a thrill ride like you have not seen in years.  The Badgers average 44.6 points per game.  The Ducks average 46.2.  The Badgers give up an average of 17 points per game while the Ducks yield 23.6.  Both teams are loaded and both teams have great offenses.  Both these teams had visions of playing for the bigger prize this season but the Rose Bowl is still a great place for these teams.  It is a game that should delight football fans everywhere.  The Badger offense has been the best in the Big Ten all year.  They finished the season ranked first in rushing (237.4), fourth in passing (229.5) and first in scoring (44.6) in the Big Ten.  They won the Big Ten Leaders division and the Big Ten championship game.  Quarterback Russell Wilson has been a huge gain for the Badger offense this year.  He has thrown for 2879 yards and 31 touchdowns while also rushing for 320 yards and 5 touchdowns.  The running game is led by Montee Ball.  Ball has rushed for 1759 yards and 32 touchdowns this year.  When he isn’t ripping defenses apart they bring in James White who has 683 yards and 6 touchdowns this year.  Nick Toon leads receivers with 822 yards and 9 touchdowns but Jared Abbrederis has emerged as another receiving threat for the Badgers this year with 814 yards and 7 touchdowns.  Yes, they have the weapons.

The Ducks are no slouch.  Oregon managed to finish first in the Pac 12 North and win the Pac 12 title this year.  The Ducks ranked first in rushing offense (295.7), tenth in passing (219.5) and first in scoring (46.2).  They do like to run the ball at you a lot but they have had plenty of success in the air as well.  Quarterback Darron Thomas has thrown for 2493 yards and 30 touchdowns this year.  The Ducks have a tandem of backs to give opposing defenses problems too.  The leading running back is LaMichael James who has rushed for 1646 yards and 17 touchdowns this year.  When he needs a break they bring in Kenjon Barner who managed to run for 909 yards and 11 touchdowns this year.  The receiving threats are De’Anthony Thomas who has 440 yards and 5 touchdowns and Lavasier Tuinei who posted 441 yards and 8 touchdowns.  As you can see, the Ducks have weapons too.

The Badger defense was one of the best in the Big Ten.  Sadly there are not many teams in the Big Ten that run the ball like Oregon.  This will be a challenge for the Badgers.  Their strength is in their pass defense.  They are not a great rush defense team and that will be a problem.  Wisconsin finished the year ranked third in the Big Ten in total defense with 293.0 yards per game.  Their rushing defense yields an average of 138.0 yards per game.  The defense did finish the year ranked second in interceptions in the Big Ten.  The defense is led by Mike Taylor and Chris Borland.  They will be called upon to stop the Ducks running game.

The Oregon defense is not a particularly strong unit at stopping either the pass or run.  The Ducks rushing defense yields 137.5 yards per game which is good enough to be ranked fifth in the Pac 12.  The passing defense yields 243.5 yards per game which is also fifth in the Pac 12.  The defense is anchored by linebacker Michael Clay, Safety John Boyett and Linebacker Dewitt Stuckey.  The Ducks will have their hands full trying to keep Wilson in the pocket but so far this season DE Dion Jordan (7.5 sacks) and Josh Kaddu (6.5) have proven they can get to the quarterback to shake things up in the backfield.  The more they can rattle Wilson the better their chances of stopping Ball.  The big guys have to get the penetration up front to stop the Badger running game.

The Ducks are a 6 point favorite in this game.  That is crazy.  I like what the Ducks can do and I may be a bit biased but I think the better weapons will be dressed in cardinal and white for this game.  I just don’t believe the Oregon defense can stop the Badger offense.  I do believe the Badgers have more weapons on defense that can stop the Ducks.  Ok, maybe not stop them but at least slow them down or disrupt their flow enough to give the Badgers the chance to win.

Prediction:
Wisconsin 41 Oregon 39

Elite WR Justin Blackmon leads the high-scoring Oklahoma State attack (Icon SMI)

Glendale AZ hosts the Oklahoma State Cowboys and the Stanford Cardinal on Monday January 2 at 8pm ET, and in any other year this would be a fantastic BCSMNC (BCS Mythical National Championship).

Heck, one could well argue that the Cowboys deserved to be in the title game but that nasty loss at Iowa State “left it to the judges”.

Nonetheless, a great consolation prize and a true 3-4 matchup for bragging rights. Two respected coaches leading their alma mater to heights previously not known for the programs. Two of the best quarterbacks in the sport. And fans can enjoy the football for football sake.

Breakdown and predictions after the yump.

When the Pokes have the ball:

It can be argued that QB Brandon Weeden, WR Justin Blackmon and C Grant Garner represent the best at their respective positions, then when you see that RBs Joseph Randle and Jeremy Smith combined for 1800 yards and 32 TDs you can see why the Cowboy offense strikes fear in every defensive coordinator’s dreams.

#3 nationally in yards per play (7.2), #2 with 49.3 Points per game, and most every college football fan has witnessed the sheer aesthetic gorgeousness of the Weeden fade route to Blackmon.

If there is a weakness to the Cowboy offense, it can be Weeden’s (well deserved) hubris on early downs trying to force passes into tight windows – of his 12 picks thrown, eight were on first down, and seven were when the Cowboys were up by 8+ points. I expect his mind will be focused given the national stage and importance of this game to himself and the program.

Stanford defense ranks in the top quartile in most categories, and they excel at creating havoc in the backfield (6th in sacks (3.17/gm) and 15th in tackles for loss). LB Chase Thomas provides the main assault on blocking schemes. One can argue that when ranked teams with talent came calling, the Stanford defense could not keep up. They allowed 48 to USC in a win and a similar scheme of Oregon put up 53 in the Cardinal’s only loss.

Key to the game: Cowboys offense tempo continues to be quick before the Cardinal can disrupt. If Coach Gundy and OC Todd Monken cannot establish the usual frenetic rhythm then advantage Stanford. But don’t expect that.

When the Cardinal have the ball:

Andrew Luck led his offense to impressive numbers too, #6 in the nation with 6.7 yards per play behind an excellent offensive line. LT Jonathan Martin should have a seat at the NFL Draft Green Room. If you can name a Stanford WR, you are a super fan – Luck spreads it around exceptionally well with SEVEN Cardinal with 20+ catches and three of those are TEs. If that isn’t enough to keep a defender’s head on a lazy susan, blink and you get back-to-back 1k RB Stepfan Taylor running up the gut. Coach David Shaw likes power football and is one of the rare college teams that relies on dual-threat tight ends to make it work.

Many pundits give Oklahoma State defense a bad rap, whether by ignorance or choice most focus on the yards allowed while discounting their nation-best 42 turnovers created. Granted, bend-but-don’t-break has its limits when the defense ranks 106th with 446 yards allowed per game but let us remember that the goal of the defense is to not allow points (average 60th at 26 ppg) and that is acceptable when you can score 50 on any given game.

If you think the spread or the triple option makes for a tough week of preparation, good luck fielding a scout team that can replicate three-tight formations and personnel that stretch the field vertically. Maybe the Cowboys can borrow some power forwards from their underwhelming hoops squad. Subtle advantage to Stanford.

Smart desert guys say: OSU 38-34

Most of my prediction work begins with the most informed spectators and what they do with their money versus what pundits say.

Both teams 6-6 Over/Under for the year, so feel good about the total points projection. Both teams much better than expected at 11-1, both essentially 9-3 against the spread (ATS) so again there isn’t much to go on from the smart guys.

If we dig deeper and look at ATS trends as a sort of “investor sentiment”, surprisingly all the Luck love over the last three seasons never quite made it to the bettors – 25-11! My educated guess is that the country thinks the rest of the roster is weak, but Luck just keeps putting the Cardinal on his shoulders. Kinda Tebow-like, but with a proper throwing motion.

Oklahoma State has been a tremendous favorite though during the last three seasons, going 22-8 overall and 13-0 when a moderate fave from 4 to 10 points.

These contradicting stats and two bucks will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks – throw them all in a leftover gift bag, shake it all up and just sit back to enjoy the most compelling non-rematch of the bowl season.

PREDICTION: a little under expectations but a stellar game and a Cowboy win 35-31.

Forget the game, everyone wants to talk about the coach.  Urban Meyer, the former Florida Gator coach and future Ohio State coach, will be the most talked about aspect of this game.  What a twist of irony that his former team and his future team are both appearing in this bowl game with 6-6 records after disappointing seasons for both teams.  Forget the early season suspensions.  The Big Ten has been buzzing about Meyer getting an exemption to be at the game for recruiting.  And we haven’t even begun to talk about the lovely things Florida fans are saying about their former coach.  Let’s just say Congress and Communism have a higher approval rating right now than Urban Meyer does in Gainesville.  Ohio State brings in a less than impressive offense to Jacksonville.  The Buckeyes ended the season ranked sixth in rushing offense (142.4), last in passing offense (124.1) and eighth in scoring offense (25.1).  The offense is led by quarterback Braxton Miller who passed for 997 yards and 11 touchdowns this year.  Miller is also the leading rusher for the Buckeyes with 695 yards but once Dan Herron returned from suspension he began compiling yards and has 596 yards this year.  The lack of a passing game has hurt the receiving corps this year and no one has really emerged as a real threat downfield.

The Gator offense has been about as impressive as well.  The Gators finished the season ranked eighth in rushing (144.0), fifth in passing (190.2) and seventh in scoring (25.6) in the SEC.  The offense is led by quarterback John Brantley who has thrown for 1912 yards and 10 touchdowns this year.  The primary running attack has come from Chris Rainey who has rushed for 790 yards and 2 touchdowns.  The primary receiving target has been Andre Debose with 423 yards and 4 touchdowns.  The Gators offense has struggled at times this year and had plenty of games where they failed to score more than 12 points.  If the offense can get going the score often.  When they struggle though they are abysmal.

The Buckeye defense has traditionally been one of the strongest assets for Ohio State.  It still had its moments this year but was not as strong as it had been in years past.  The Buckeyes ranked fifth in the Big Ten in sacks and fourth in interceptions.  The heart of the defense is linebacker Andrew Sweat.  He leads the Buckeyes with 34 solo tackles this year.  C.J. Barnett, Christian Bryant and Johnathan Hankins have also been key components of the Buckeye defense this year and have accounted for a majority of the tackles on the field.  John Simon leads the Buckeyes with 7 sacks which ranks third in the Big Ten.

The Gator defense is a similar story.  Traditionally a strong unit but a bit of a disappointment this year although they do have one of the better pass defenses in the nation.  The defense is led by linebacker Jonathan Bostic who has 53 solo tackles this season.  Jelani Jenkins (46 solo) is another key linebacker that keeps the Gators defense in the face of opposing offenses all day.  Matt Elam and Jaye Howard will also play a factor in giving the Buckeye offense a rough day.  Ronald Powell is the sack leader for the Gators.  He will try to add to that total if he can catch the speedy Miller in the backfield.

These two teams match up pretty well on paper but the Buckeyes have played like a lost group all season.  I don’t expect to see them come together as a unit for this game.  Perhaps once Meyer gets to Columbus and takes over things will be better but for now it looks like the Gators will be drinking the victory Champagne while the Buckeye fans will just be nursing a bad New Years hangover.

Prediction:
Florida 24  Ohio State 20

This is one of the most even matched games of the bowl season.  Nebraska finished the season 9-3 with a 5-3 conference record and was third in the Big Ten Legends division.  South Carolina went 10-2 this year with a 6-2 conference record and was second in the SEC East.  South Carolina has one of the toughest defenses in the nation.  Nebraska has one more thing on their side.  South Carolina has never beaten them.  Neither has Steve Spurrier.  And that is the kind of omen that gets in a fella’s head. The kind of thing that will make a guy throw his visor down in disgust and bite his bottom lip as he struggles to find the right play call.  I can picture Spurrier now pacing the sideline as he tries to beat Nebraska in this one.  But this time, he has a team that matches up well against the Cornhuskers.  Nebraska’s offense is led by the dual attack of quarterback Taylor Martinez and running back Rex Burkhead.  Nebraska ended the season ranked third in rushing offense (223.9 yards per game), tenth in passing (166.6) and fourth in scoring (30.5) in the Big Ten.  Taylor Martinez has been a dual threat at quarterback as he passed for 1973 yards and 12 touchdowns and rushed for 837 yards and 9 touchdowns.  When Martinez isn’t running or throwing his main offensive weapon is Rex Burkhead.  Burkhead rushed for 1268 yards this year with 15 touchdowns.  The Cornhusker rushing attack is ranked 14th in the nation and should be able to test South Carolina’s defense.

South Carolina has an offense that matches up pretty well to Nebraska.  The Gamecocks ended the season ranked third in rushing offense (198.0), seventh in passing (177.4) and fifth in scoring (30.1) in the SEC.  The offense is led by quarterback Connor Shaw who claimed the staring job in October and has been improving as the season came to an end.  He threw for 1218 yards and 12 touchdowns during his short time at quarterback.  The rushing attack is led by Marcus Lattimore and Brandon Wilds.  Lattimore is out and Wilds has done a great job replacing him late in the season.  There has been concern recently about a hamstring injury that is nagging Wilds.  During the season, Wilds rushed for 486 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Alshon Jeffery is the leading receiving thread and could disrupt the Cornhusker secondary.  He caught 614 yards this year and 7 touchdowns.

Nebraska’s defense is one of the most generous defenses in the Big Ten.  They average giving up 22.8 points per game.  The defense ranked eleventh in the Big Ten in sacks this year.  The defense is missing a big pressure man up front.  Linebacker Lavonte David leads the team in tackles and is responsible for 3.5 of their sacks this year.  Will Compton also does a solid job anchoring the linebackers and keeping opposing offenses in check.

South Carolina brings one of the nations best defenses to Orlando.  The defense ranks fourth and yields only 18.8 points per game.  That was good enough to be ranked third in the SEC in scoring defense.  There are a few key contributors to this defenses success.  Antonio Allen has 50 solo tackles.  D.J. Swearinger has 51 and DeVonte Holloman had 30.  And we haven’t even mentioned Melvin Ingram yet.  Ingram has been a wrecking machine for the Gamecocks this year.  He has 9 sacks on the season (8 solo) and should be playing in the NFL next year.

From the match up we have here the best aspect of this game will be watching the Nebraska offense try to move the ball against the South Caroline defense.  Both sides features star players that can help their team win the game.  We just have to wait to see who will play the better game.

Prediction:
Nebraska  27 South Carolina 28