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TEBOW (Talent Excess Budgeted Over Walkon) Ratings 2011

On Monday we debuted our exclusive TEBOW rankings for the Fantasy College Football Invitational (FCFI) Expert League format (18 teams, 2QB, etc.), and I wanted to get new rankings for the major formats ahead of the weekend as this tends to be the first big draft weekend of the year.

Tim Tebow at Florida

Tim Tebow created one of the greatest seasons in college football history and won 2007 Heisman Trophy. His excellence inspired our model that will forever seek out the best players in the sport. (Icon SMI)

A refresher – Talent Excess Budgeted Over Walkon (TEBOW) applies some time-tested fantasy principles to CFO Drew Smith’s projections, helping you better prepare for your unique draft setups. I think I can credit Baseball Prospectus with the fantasy application Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) concept, in that any member of a fantasy roster only has value if expected to perform over the value of a player on the margin of the league’s starting lineup requirements.

So for our purposes, while Case Keenum is universally accepted as the creme de la creme of fantasy college QBs, his value to a given fantasy roster is determined by the value relative to a replacement QB in your league. Assuming a 16-team league, if you play 2 QBs his value is greater than in a 1QB league since the marginal utility is QB 33 versus QB17.

Got it? Not yet, please realize you can now compare the relative values among the positions to see who is a better overall pick. Compare Keenum’s TEBOW value versus Justin Blackmon or La Michael James and on down the line. We are going much deeper after the jump. (UPDATED WITH FULL RANKINGS ON BOTH FORMATS)

If you want custom work, email me at vince[AT]fantasycollegeblitz[dot]com and the only cost is telling a friend about the site. Find me on twitter @vincemullins too.

I am going to focus tonight on the all-FBS player pools, standard scoring and 16-owner leagues.  First up, no points per reception (non-PPR)

Let us start out with the traditional 1Q-2R-2W starting lineup (ignore K and D, TE has no big standouts in this format). With no PPR you know that WR and dual-threat RBs will be downgraded, but since we project that WR and RB will be top heavy they dominate the Top 15 (results are in the TEBOW122 column):


Rank Name Pos Class Team Conf Bye TFP FP/G

1 Ryan Broyles WR Sr OKLA Big XII 2, 11 258.70 19.90 7.90
2 LaMichael James RB Jr ORE Pac-12 5, 14 306.60 23.58 7.58
3 Marcus Lattimore RB So SOCAR SEC 8, 14 305.50 23.50 7.50
4 Case Keenum QB Sr HOU C-USA 7,14 363.94 28.00 7.00
5 Justin Blackmon WR Jr OKST Big XII 5, 13 245.60 18.89 6.89
6 Ronnie Hillman RB So SDST MWC 5, 8 297.30 22.87 6.87
7 Bobby Rainey RB Sr WKTY Sun Belt 4, 14 291.30 22.41 6.41
8 David Wilson RB Jr VATC ACC 10, 14 287.40 22.11 6.11
9 Landry Jones QB Jr OKLA Big XII 2, 11 350.48 26.96 5.96
10 Trent Richardson RB Jr ALA SEC 9, 14 285.30 21.95 5.95
11 Montee Ball RB Jr WIS Big Ten 6, 14 282.60 21.74 5.74
12 Lance Dunbar RB Sr NOTX Sun Belt 10, 13 281.90 21.68 5.68
13 G.J. Kinne QB Sr TULSA C-USA 6, 14 340.62 26.20 5.20
14 Bryant Moniz QB Sr HAW WAC 6 336.88 25.91 4.91
15 Alshon Jeffery WR Jr SOCAR SEC 8, 14 219.70 16.90 4.90

Only 4 QB in the Top 15, with 8 RB and the Big 2 WR of the Big 12 are joined only by Alshon Jeffery. IMO, if you have a top 5 pick you can justify any of this top 5 as each expects to generate more than 6 points more per game than the replacement player (Walkon). Further if you embrace the idea of scarcity then either receiver from the State of the Scissor-tailed Fly Catcher could be your #1 overall.

From scarcity to abundance, QB10 is Kyle Padron at #42 overall on this TEBOW study – further evidence to wait on your QB selection. If the rest of your drafters are going nuts about the big name QB, gladly mop up your entire starting lineups and a backup each of RB and WR before picking up your first QB in Round 6 or later!

Let’s change it up a bit, stick with non-PPR but 1QB-2RB-3WR-1FLEX starting lineups. We adapt to The Flex by comparing Drew’s projections to an additional depth of each the RB and WR positions, so RB 49 and WR 65. Obviously this makes the top WRs more valuable at the top of the rankings, but you likely will want to play a RB at flex since their production is more stable week-to-week and that is reflected with more RBs showing up in the 60-100 overall spots.

Finally, I want to run a starting lineup format that is gaining traction in all-FBS formats since you can select from such a large crop of players – 2QB-3RB-3WR-1 Flex. This makes QBs more valuable at the top of the draft (see intro), and WR much less compelling while RBs take over the top:

Rk Name Pos Rk Class Team

1 LaMichael James RB1 Sr ORE 10.58
2 Marcus Lattimore RB2 So SOCAR 10.50
3 Case Keenum QB1 Sr HOU 10.00
4 Ryan Broyles WR1 Sr OKLA 9.90
5 Ronnie Hillman RB3 So SDST 9.87
6 Bobby Rainey RB4 Sr WKTY 9.41
7 David Wilson RB5 Jr VATC 9.11
8 Landry Jones QB2 Jr OKLA 8.96
9 Trent Richardson RB6 Jr ALA 8.95
10 Justin Blackmon WR2 Jr OKST 8.89
11 Montee Ball RB7 Jr WIS 8.74
12 Lance Dunbar RB8 Sr NOTX 8.68
13 G.J. Kinne QB3 Sr TULSA 8.20
14 Bryant Moniz QB4 Sr HAW 7.91
15 Robert Griffin QB5 Jr BAY 7.76
16 Dominique Davis QB6 Sr ECU 7.61

FCB_TEBOW234_2011_Aug18 (pdf)

I included Davis at 16 just to highlight how important it is to know your the effects of your starting lineup.

If you want something custom, email me at vince[AT]fantasycollegeblitz[dot]com and I will work on it on Sunday since I will be drafting all damn day on Saturday. Find me on twitter @vincemullins too.


One comment on “TEBOW (Talent Excess Budgeted Over Walkon) Ratings 2011

  1. […] can be said about James?  He was our #1 draft pick in the FCFI Expert League.  He’s carries one of the top TEBOW ratings, regardless of your scoring system. He is in a class by himself within the Pac 12 and will put up […]

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