Air Force Falcons vs. Toledo Rockets –The teams had a common opponent this season, each losing to Boise State. The Rockets suffered a 40-15 home defeat to the Broncos on Sept. 16, and the Falcons lost 37-26 on the road Oct. 22.
- Air Force
- The Falcons’ are a strong running team via the triple option; Air Force is second in the FBS in rushing at 320.3 yards a contest.
- Asher Clark leads the way with 1,096 rushing yards, while Mike DeWitt has run for 543 and QB Tim Jefferson 492. DeWitt and Jefferson are tied with a team-high 10 rushing TDs, and Air Force has run for 38 scores – fourth in the FBS.
- Air Force may have to rely on the pass a bit more because Toledo has been solid against the run allowing an average of 123.2 yards…but their pass defense has been terrible ranking 109th out of 120 FBS schools in pass defense at 278 ypg.
- The Rockets averaged 42.3 points this season – best in the Mid-American Conference and eighth nationally – and since the start of November they average an FBS-best 53.8.
- Running a spread offense the Rockets averaged 221.2 yards rushing and 272.0 passing, one of 14 FBS schools above 200 in both categories.
- WR Eric Page is third in the nation with 112 receptions for 1,123 yards and 10 TDs.
- Toledo’s ground game has also excelled with Adonis Thomas amassing 648 rushing yards and eight touchdowns in his last four games. Thomas leads the Rockets in rushing with 963 yards and is tied with Morgan Williams for the team lead with 11 touchdown runs; Thomas and Williams could be poised for big games against Air Force, which ranks 113th against the run at 227.8 yards a game.
Nick’s Pick: Air Force 41 – Toledo 40
Comment: The Rockets can really light up the score board but a suspect defense playing against a very disciplined and efficient USAFA offense may be the difference. If the Rockets can eliminate turnovers and penalties they will win; they have yet to really show that sort of discipline this season against the better teams on their schedule. I expect this one to go to the wire.