After three years and three consecutive national championships, the SEC has one heck of a resume to hang their hat on. However, all that bling serves as a shield toward a pretty awkward couple of issues: the league only runs two deep at the top right now and fantasy players tail off in a hurry down south of the Mason Dixon. Attrition caused its own mess, so …now what? Now we have a couple of guys who are impact players, a few guys who could be, and then a heck of a lot of hope.
Big arm, big body, big-time coach - yes, Arkansas' Ryan Mallett looks like the real fantasy deal (Icon SMI)
At least we have trophies…
QUARTERBACK
1. Ryan Mallett, Arkansas
2. Cam Newton, Auburn
3. John Brantley, Florida
4. Jeremiah Masoli, Ole Miss
Let’s start with the obvious: Ryan Mallett is as close to a fantasy QB beast the SEC is likely to get for the near future. He has a system designed to maximize his talents, he has a quality crop of WRs, and he’ll get the opportunities. After that …. yikes. Sure, Stephen Garcia is still floating around, and Greg McElroy is a great real-life QB, but they have systemic issues – McElroy isn’t in an offense that lets him pass enough, and Garcia is going to be yanked out of at least 3-4 games (plus is still playing behind a swinging gate of an offensive line).
Instead, we’re left with what systems are likely to produce. Newton, Brantley, and Masoli are all untested in SEC play, excepting Newton’s garbage time as a Gator his freshman year. However, they’re all in systems that can maximize their talents (and to be brutally frank, I flipped their order a few times writing this). For now, I trust Newton more than either of the two guys ranked below him. Brantley has all the tools, but after what happened to Florida’s offense under Steve Addazio last year, I’m a bit gunshy. Masoli by all rights should be going to an offense that will let him run – Matt Jones in 2004 as a good example of Masoli’s potential – but there’s the simple matter of, well, not trusting that Houston Nutt has any idea how to coach QBs. At all. Couple that with Ole Miss breaking in three new guys on the line and there are some red flags here, even with Masoli’s production last season.
Don’t get me wrong – Newton, Brantley, and Masoli all have a chance to be the best fantasy QB in the SEC. But in the absence of any history, we’re left to fall back on what we’ve seen guys like them do, and the production potential of those three guys doesn’t outweigh what we already know about Mallett.
On to the feature backs…RUNNING BACK
Alabama RB Mark Ingram raised his hands 20 times in 2009 (Icon SMI)
1. Mark Ingram, Alabama
2. Derrick Locke, Kentucky
3. Jeff Demps, Florida
4. Ontario McCalebb, Auburn
5. Tauren Poole, Tennessee
6. Broderick Green, Arkansas
7. Washaun Ealey, Georgia
8. Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina
9. Mario Fannin, Auburn
10. Trent Richardson, Alabama
Vince Mullins has to be so happy that it’s been three years and I’m finally starting to give Mario Fannin some credit. Sure, he’s ranked behind the true freshman running behind a super-porous line, but hey! Mario Fannin! (ed. Note – we will talk in November.)
The SEC running back crew is weird; on one hand, you have starting RBs in single-back type offenses (Ingram, Locke, Poole, Lattimore, likely Ealey, Green – who we’ll talk more about in a bit), but enough teams have dangerous enough runners in multiple-back offenses that they’re viable (Demps, McCalebb, Fannin) – and then there’s Trent Richardson, who’s enough of a beast in his own right that he’s worth paying attention to at least. At the top, we know what we’ll get from Ingram and Locke; both are dominant enough runners, and Ingram is likely one of the first RBs off the board, if not the first. After that, things get weird.
Tauren Poole and Marcus Lattimore are both effectively starters in single-back offenses. At this point, that makes them viable fantasy commodities for entirely different reasons. Tennessee’s offense is likely a lo-fi affair this year, and considering the absolute massacre of a QB situation the Vols are going with, they’ll depend heavily on the running game. Tennessee’s crutch is a fantasy boon. Lattimore, on the other hand, is South Carolina’s first golden child and arguably the best recruit Spurrier 2.0 has brought in to Columbia. Although I’m a fan of Jarvis Giles, there’s absolutely no reason he should start above Lattimore, and Lattimore will get the kind of leash that Stephen Garcia only wishes he had.
Washaun Ealey should be the starter for Georgia, but the risk here is twofold: either he may not end up as the starter for the entire season, or he’ll split carries. He has talent, but tread carefully. Broderick Green may not end up as the starter at Arkansas, either (if he isn’t, Ronnie Wingo is); however, he’s turned into Jovorski Lane 2.0, and even with Wingo, um, waiting in the wings, Green still outcarried him in all but two games last year. Green was a TD magnet last year – he finished fifth in the SEC in rushing TDs last year with 11, which isn’t bad for a guy who isn’t getting any press.
As for the multi-back offenses… well, I believe in Gus Malzahn. That, and I think McCalebb stands to inherit the Ben Tate Honorary Battering Ram and All-Around Awesome RB mantle, although it may take him a season to inherit all the lands Tate conquered last year. Fannin in turn will slot nicely into a hybrid RB/WR role, and he should be able to inflict a decent amount of damage if he can get about 15 touches a game. Demps is as close to a primary back as we’ve seen at Florida in a couple of seasons , but he has two big things working in his favor: he carried most of the non-Tebow workload last year, and with Tebow’s departure there are so many carries available. Tebow registered 217 carries last season; even if a quarter – well, a third – of those were broken plays and sacks, that’s still about 12 carries a game. Last year Demps averaged 7 yards a carry and 1 TD per 14 carries. Projecting that out, Demps is looking at an additional 5-8 TDs or so, which isn’t a minor improvement.
WIDE RECEIVER
1. Darvin Adams, Auburn
2. AJ Green, Georgia
3. Randall Cobb, Kentucky
4. Alshon Jeffrey, South Carolina
5. Greg Childs, Arkansas
6. Andre Dubose, Florida
7. Terrance Tolliver, LSU
8. Julio Jones, Alabama
9. Gerald Jones, Tennessee
10. Joe Adams, Arkansas
Once again, we have some issues with top-heavy talent. Darvin Adams was a beast last season, and as the leading returning receiver in a Malzahn offense (sense a trend yet?) he’s quality. With Randall Cobb functioning as the other half of the Kentucky offense, that’s worth paying attention to as well. In Kentucky’s case, they don’t really have any other dynamic playmakers beyond Locke and Cobb; with QB Morgan Newton entering his sophomore year, expect to see Cobb (a former QB in his own right) getting plenty of snaps at the Wildcats’, er, Wildcat formation. Yeah. Imagination. Go!
It was a minor upset to see AJ Green turn into a more productive WR than Julio Jones; sure, both are the focal points of their respective team’s passing games, but Green has a bit more talent on his team at wideout (or he’s better at shaking double-teams). Of course, the “primary WR target as viable fantasy option” is where the SEC makes it bones right now – Alshon Jeffery, Tolliver, and Gerald Jones fall into this category. To an extent, Greg Childs falls into this category as well, except Arkansas’ passing attack is pretty high-powered so Joe Adams pops up at the bottom of this list (it’s either him or Chad Bumphis, and I’m not ready for a reality where a Mississippi State WR is a fantasy commodity).
That leaves Andre Dubose, who’s easily the most fascinating guy on this list. Dubose was injured all of last season, but the vibe on Dubose is Percy Harvin 2.0. Last year Florida had a glaring need for this kind of player and playmaker – Demps is good but not in that mold, and Chris Rainey didn’t seem to take to that role. Dubose, on the other hand, looks like he could be that guy. However, injuries are a very real concern with him. He could easily end up as the most productive WR in the conference, but hedge your bets if you can.
TIGHT ENDS
1. Luke Stocker, Tennessee
2. DJ Williams, Arkansas
3. Weslye Saunders, South Carolina
4. Brandon Barden, Vanderbilt
DJ Williams is the SEC tight end that gets the most press, and deservedly so. However, Stocker came into his own last season after a relatively quiet first month. Stocker is also fortunate to be playing for a questionable offense, which could easily drive balls to the tight ends. Williams is the third outlet – granted, it’s on a pass-first offense, but it’s still a third outlet. Saunders and Barden are pretty much “slightly better than a warm body” territory, and are only included because I told myself I’d include four tight ends in this ranking. With Saunders’ possible eligibility issues (NCAA investigators have set up a field office in front of his apartment / hotel room), he’ll drop off the list, leaving …. *throws dart* Orson Charles.
KICKERS
1. Blair Walsh, Georgia
2. Caleb Sturgis, Florida
3. Wes Bynum, Auburn
4. Alex Tejada, Arkansas
I have a simple formula for evaluating kickers: look for quality legs on shaky offenses, and then look for extra points galore. That really about sums it up. Walsh is the best leg by far in the SEC this season, and he has both range and accuracy; not trusting Georgia’s offense is just the icing on the cake. The remaining kickers are, accurately enough, kickers who get to play for possibly the three most explosive offenses in the conference. There are worse fates.
DEFENSE
1. Alabama
2. Florida
3. South Carolina
4. LSU
I don’t know how to put this, but SEC defenses this year are kind of a fantasy wasteland. The two premier defenses in the league shed a combined 15 starters and one defensive coordinator over the offseason; even with that, they’re still the class of the crop. Outfits from Georgia and Tennessee flipped DCs – Georgia opting for the pro route, Tennessee bringing in Boise State DC Justin Wilcox – and while both hires are likely to bear fantasy fruit, it won’t be this season.
That leaves Ellis Johnson and John Chavis, which aren’t bad fallback options. Johnson in particular has put together one of the better under-the-radar defenses at South Carolina over the last few years. Chavis is in year two of his LSU stint; while I don’t expect him to get any help from his offense, he’s done well enough in that situation before (see: Tennessee 2005, Tennessee 2008).
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