ARIZONA @ STANFORD
Time for Nick Foles to put the pads back on after a dislocated knee (Icon SMi, from media days)
QB Nick Foles is reported to be back at 100% and ought to reclaim the starting spot this week. Expect him to throw for about 250 and could chip in another 50 on the ground and should end up with a TD, but might not have a multi-score game.
WR Juron Criner has become the focal point of the offense and should end up with about 120 on 8-ish catches and could end up with a TD. There is no clearcut #2WR but last week WR David Roberts had 6 catches on 7 targets, including a team-leading 3 in the RedZone.
Stanford is #40 against the run, still the Wildcats ought to be able to combine for 125-175 on the ground. As fas as how those yards will be split up, with Grigsby dinged up RB Keola Antolin seems to have taken his chance and literally run with it and has more-or-less become the main cog in the rushing attack. He run should run for about 100 on 18-ish carries and could chip in another few through the air and could end up with a TD.
RB Nic Grigsby is now healthy (according to reports) but still figures to be the #2 back and should run for about 50 on 9-ish carries and could chip in another few through the air, but being more of a GoalLine-type of back he might also end up with a short-yardage TD.
For a projection for every player on each team…
ARIZONA STATE @ USC
USC is giving up more yards through the air per game than Washington State.
Repeat that sentence in your head.
QB Steven Threet & Co. just played the Cougars last week and Threet ended up with 300 yards and 3 score. Expect more of the same, in fact expect better numbers since the Trojans actually have an offense the Sun Devils will have to keep up with. Expect Threet to approach 350 and could chip in another 25 on the ground and could end up with 3 or even 4 scores.
Threet seems to really like to spread the ball around, week-in-week-out there are 4 or 5 or more Sun Devil WRs who finish with 5 or more pass targets. So no one WR is likely to bust out with big yardage totals. Instead let’s focus on who is likely to score. It doesn’t appear to be WR Aaron Pflugrad or WR Kerry Taylor, when it comes to scoring it looks like AZST is headed towards a youth movement. WR Jamal Miles is a converted RB, sort of like Quizz but a little farther down the WR scale. He has emerged as a legit target should end up with about 45 on 4-ish catches and could end up with a TD.
While it is true the Sun Devils love to hit multiple WRs, is it of interesting note that WR T.J. Simpson has led the team is yards and catches 2 weeks in a row. Emerging #1? Maybe…This week he should end up with about 90 on 6-ish catches and is a good bet to score.
RB Cameron Marshall is the steady force, he ought to get the bulk of the carries and should run for about 75-100 on 16-ish carries and could chip in another few through the air and could end up with 2 scores.
RB Deantre Lewis is the X-factor who will break off huge chunks of yards from time to time but not get many touches. He should run for about 50-75 on 7-ish carries and could chip in another few through the air and could end up with a TD.
CAL @ WASHINGTON STATE
Cal was down so big so early last week it really got them out of their offense, and factor in the injury to the starting QB and things got pretty ugly last week vs Oregon State.
QB Kevin Riley is done for the season, meaning 2011 basically starts now and in his place will be QB Brock Mansion who should throw for about 250 and could end up with 2 scores against the hapless Cougar D.
WR Keenan Allen should end up with about 90 on 8-ish catches and could chip in another 25 through the air and could end up with a TD.
WR Marvin Jones should end up with about 105 on 6-ish catches and could chip in another 25 through the air but might not score.
The star of this should ought to be Vereen. After getting shutdown in the blowout loss to Oregon State last week, he will be itchin to get at a D allowing a national worst 224 yards on the ground per game. With a QB making his first start, expect RB Shane Vereen to approach 200 yards on a heavy workload and could chip in another 20-50 through the air and could end up with as many as 3 scores.
OREGON vs WASHINGTON
This could get ugly. The Huskies are down their star QB Jake Locker (ribs) who has been about 85% of the offense thus far, so the Ducks will be hosting a youngster making his first hostile start.
QB Darron Thomas should throw for about 350 and could chip in another 75 on the ground and could end up with 3 scores.
WR Jeff Maehl should end up with about 150 on 10-ish catches and is a great shot to have a multi-score game.
WR Lavasier Tuinei has been a reliable #2 and taking full advantage of all the attention paid to WR#1 Maehl. He might not have as good a week as he has recently because the Huskies shouldn’t be able to contain Maehl, still Tuinei should end up with about 75 on 6-ish catches and could end up with a TD.
RB LaMichael James is racing for a Heisman, he should run for about 250 on 30-ish carries and could chip in another few through the air and could end up with 2 scores.
RB Kenjon Barner is expected to be back from the concussion that has held him out the past few weeks, meaning the upside of RB Remene Alston should plummet. Expect Barner to get back in the flow slowly, meaning Alston will get some touches this week. Both should run for about 50 on 6-ish carries and could chip in another few through the air. Both could score in what should be a rout, but Barner should also be back as the return man which means he should see more scoring chances.
OREGON STATE @ UCLA
Against teams that primarily run the ball, the Bruins are giving up 289 yards on the ground per game.
QB Ryan Katz should throw for about 250 and could end up with a TD.
UCLA will try to sell out to stop the run, meaning WR Markus Wheaton should end up with about 60-100 on 6-ish catches and could chip in another 50 through the ground and is a great bet to score this week.
TE Joe Halahuni should end up with about 45 on 4-ish catches and is a good bet to score.
Seeing as how Quizz IS the Beaver offense plus the fact that UCLA can’t really stop him, RB Jacquizz Rodgers should be approaching 200 yards on the ground with 30-ish carries and could chip in another 20-50 through the air and could end up with 3 scores.
STANFORD vs ARIZONA
The Wildcat D appears to be for real, and Stanford can play physical too. On the one hand this game screams ‘Low-20s’, but on the other this is the Pac-10.
QB Andrew Luck should throw for about 250 and could chip in another 50 on the ground and could end up with 2 scores.
Both WR Ryan Whalen (who looks healthy after a nasty elbow injury) and WR Doug Baldwin should each end up with similar numbers as Luck doesn’t like to focus on one target too much. Something like 75-ish on 6-ish catches and each could end up with a TD.
WR Chris Owusu is back after dealing with some concussion issues, but does not appear to be anything close to 100% and seems to definitely be WR#3 at the moment.
RB Stepfan Taylor has had 5-straight 100-yard games and that streak ought to continue despite the return of RB Tyler Gaffney. Taylor clearly has become the main man in the rushing attack and should again run for about 100 on 20-ish carries and could chip in another handful through the air and ought to score at least once.
UCLA vs OREGON STATE
QB Kevin Prince was not a great passer, but his mobility was the key that opened many holes for the Bruin RBs earlier this season. Without Prince, the running attack as taken a huge hit. Plus the UCLA fullback who helped pave the way to some big gains is also done for the season.
Now last week’s complete shutdown of Cal aside, Oregon State does not have an especially stout D this season. With the focus on the obvious Bruin RBs, QB Richard Brehaut should have time and room to throw for about 200-250 and could end up with a TD, maybe even a season-high 2 passing scores!!
WR Josh Smith and WR Randall Carroll have become the main targets in the suddenly-and-barely-viable Bruin passing attack, and each should end up with about 75-100 on 5-ish catches.
With the changing personnel dynamic, the ground game should be serviceable but not special from here on out. Both RB Johnathan Franklin and RB Derrick Coleman should run for about 75-100 on 15-25-ish carries and each is a solid bet to score.
USC vs ARIZONA STATE
This game figures to shape up a lot like last week’s Oregon game, except the Sun Devils do not feature as potent an offense or as stout a defense as the Trojans faced last week.
Again, in a bid to just keep pace with the opponent, QB Matt Barkley should throw for about 400 and could end up with 3 scores.
WR Robert Woods seems to have become the main target and should end up with about 135-150 on 10-ish catches and could chip in another 25 through the air and could end up with at least one TD.
WR Ronald Johnson seems to have become more of a possession guy and should end up with about 90-125 on 8-ish catches and could end up with a TD.
It is still very much RBBC, but RB Marc Tyler appears to be the hot hand and should run for about 60-75 on 12-15-ish carries and should again score at lest once.
WASHINGTON @ OREGON
Jake Locker is out, quite possibly for the season with a broken rib, so is WR#2 Aguilar. Meaning all the Ducks have to do is double-team WR#1 Kearse to shut him down then that leaves 9 guys in the box to go after RB Polk and/or rush the red-shirt freshman making his first start.
About the only news here is that the new Huskie QB for the remainder of the season should be QB Keith Price, but certainly bench all Huskies this week as they travel to Oregon.
KEEPER NOTE: 2011 still figures to belong to QB Nick Montana (yes son of…) who is red-shirting this year.
WASHINGTON STATE vs CAL
Yes, Tuel was awful in the shutout to Arizona State last week, but keep in mind this is a young offense and these types of things will happen from time to time. Tuel missed on several open targets last week, but the bright side is of course the targets are getting open. Tuel is 100% the man, there is no one breathing down his neck for snaps, so he is being baptized by fire this season and there is a learning curve. Still, there is no reason to expect anything other than the usual performance from the usual suspects.
QB Jeff Tuel should throw for about 250-300 and could chip in another 25 on the ground and should end up with at least 2 scores.
WR Marquess Wilson should end up with about 105 on 6-ish catches and could end up with a TD. For the most part, Wilson has been getting open lately. As Tuel gets better, Wilson will become more and more unstoppable. Wazzu is more-or-less done for the year (they play the Apple Cup vs Washington in Week 14 if your league goes that far) but if he is available, stash him away in any keeper league as he really is just beginning to scratch the surface.
WR Jared Karstetter should end up with about 75 on 8-ish catches and could end up with a TD.
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